Session 5 - Agent-based social simulation reading group

For session 5 of the Agent-based social simulation reading group, we have a single paper to discuss. Of course, you are welcome to raise points made in other papers during discussion.

TITLE
The practice and rhetoric of prediction – the case in agent-based modelling – Bruce Edmonds
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13645579.2022.2137921?src=recsys

ABSTRACT
This paper looks at the tension between the desire to claim predictive ability for Agent-Based Models (ABMs) and its extreme difficulty for social and ecological systems, suggesting that this is the main cause for the continuance of a rhetoric of prediction that is at odds with what is achievable. Following others, it recommends that it is better to avoid giving the impression of predictive ability until this has been iteratively and independently verified, due to the danger of suggesting more than is empirically warranted, especially in non-modellers. It notes that there is a restricted and technical context where prediction is useful, that of meta-modelling – when we are trying to explain and understand our own simulation models. If one is going to claim prediction, then a lot more care needs to be taken, implying minimal standards in practice and transparent honesty about the empirical track record – the over-enthusiastic claiming of prediction in casual ways needs to cease.

A reminder:

As part of this series, we will also have a ‘live’ model running each session to interact with. This will give all participants opportunity to have a more hands-on experience in the sessions as well as look at platforms and coding standards over time.

This in person session will be held on Level 5, Room 5206, Steve Howard Room, Melbourne Connect.

We look forward to seeing you there!

If you would like to receive information from this Reading Group directly, please sign up to the dedicated email group. We are aware there are issues with signing up (we're working on this) - if you get blocked, please email mcds@unimelb.edu.au